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☆ We're expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at each Fed meeting from May, ING says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at each Fed meeting from May, ING saysJames Knightley of ING says "the inflation backdrop is looking much more favorable."

Persons: James Knightley Organizations: ING

☆ The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 6 times in 2024 as the economy shows clear signs of cooling down, ING says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates six times in 2024, according to ING Economics. AdvertisementAn economy that is showing clear signs of decelerating means the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least six times in 2024, according to a Thursday note from ING Economics. Knightley expects the interest rate cuts to extend into 2025 with at least four 25 basis point interest rate cuts. And it might not break if the Fed can successfully ease interest rates lower before the economy enters a recession. UBS expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points next year in response to a recession.

Persons: —, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Federal, ING Economics, Service, Reserve, ING, Fed, UBS Locations: 1,841k

☆ Here's when market experts think inflation will get back to normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.

Persons: J.P, David Kelly, —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business

☆ US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation.

Persons: Bing Guan, Sal Guatieri, James Knightley, Chris Low, Pooja Sriram, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department's, Economic, Reuters, Consumer, ING, FHN, Treasury, Fed, Barclays, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, New York

☆ Strong retail sales, factory output point to robust US growth in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in SeptemberCore retail sales rise 0.6%; August sales revised upManufacturing production increases 0.4%WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Economists defended their forecast for tepid retail sales growth, which they said was based on softening consumer confidence. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Data for August was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales gaining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously reported.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Rupkey, James Knightley, Jay Hawkins, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Commerce Department's, ING, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Financial, Amazon, Commerce Department, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Toronto

☆ Taylor Swift, 'Barbenheimer' and Beyoncé all likely fueled a US growth surge last quarter, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

He said Taylor Swift, "Barbenheimer", and Beyoncé had all helped drive growth. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy likely surged over the third quarter – and you can thank Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and the "Barbenheimer" craze for that, according to ING. "We can't argue against [the latest payroll numbers] given the strength we will likely see in third-quarter GDP," he said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"We wouldn't be surprised to see a 4% annualized expansion with Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Barbenheimer helping to give growth a kick higher," Knightley added. Eras and Beyoncé's "Renaissance World Tour" are expected to add a combined $5.4 billion to the US's third-quarter GDP, according to an estimate from Bloomberg Economics.

Persons: James Knightley, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, —, September's, Knightley, Oppenheimer Organizations: ING, Service, Gross, Product, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Philadelphia

☆ Investors fear US data disruption from looming government shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A shutdown would disrupt government services including the publication of major U.S. economic data such as keenly-watched employment and inflation reports that can move equity and bond markets globally. "If the government data releases are suspended, this will increase volatility and decrease visibility, in a time when forecasting is already difficult," said Clifton Hill, global macro portfolio manager, at Acadian Asset Management. Hill said that investors would have to make assumptions based on survey and non-government economic data that is available. Key government data releases due over the next two weeks include jobless claims, unemployment and inflation, which influence monetary policy. Peter Vassallo, a foreign exchange portfolio manager at BNP Asset Management said delays in economic data "is unfortunately just something that we have to deal with as it comes."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Clifton, Hill, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, James Knightley, Peter Vassallo, Vassallo, Lynn Martin, Chris Murphy, Goldman Sachs, shutdowns, Acadian's, Moody's, Fitch, Murphy, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Acadian Asset Management, Federal, LPL, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, BNP, Management, NYSE, Susquehanna International Group, United Auto Workers, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Clifton Hill

☆ Higher gasoline prices seen boosting US inflation in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.

Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York

☆ The US consumer has been holding up the economy this summer by splurging on movies and concerts — but this may not last, a new survey indicates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.

Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Struggling US households may soon max out their credit cards as banks get skittish
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But the spending habits of consumers do not appear to be sustainable, and a correction is due. But spending habits are unsustainable, and a decline in consumer spending is likely coming in early 2024, according to the note. That's because credit card debts are piling up and excess savings from the pandemic are being depleted. "With banks far more reluctant to provide unsecured consumer credit, based on the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey, the clear threat is that many struggling households may soon find their credit cards are being maxed out and they can't obtain more credit," he said. AdvertisementAdvertisementTotal credit card debt held by US consumers hit a record high earlier this year of more than $1 trillion.

Persons: James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: ING Economics, Federal

Companies Equinor ASA FollowMorningstar Inc FollowNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% to a six-week high on Friday as supply concerns outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil. "OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices," analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note. OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year, sources close to OPEC said. Russia's latest pledge to reduce oil exports will not require a similar cut in production, a government source told Reuters. Higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Persons: Brent, WTI, Morningstar, Russia's, Vortexa, James Knightley, Janet Yellen, Shadia Nasralla, Sudarshan, Jason Neely, David Evans, David Gregorio Our Organizations: ASA, Morningstar, . West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Oil, Equinor ASA, U.S . Federal Reserve, ING, U.S . Energy Information Administration, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Saudi, Ain, Norway, Mexico, China, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, London, Singapore

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ US job growth expected to moderate but remain at brisk pace in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Economists said the revisions brought the claims series closer to other data that have suggested the labor market was losing speed. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week offered a downbeat assessment of the labor market. The labor market is expected to significantly loosen up starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to a slowdown in demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Small businesses, like restaurants and bars, have been the main drivers of job growth since the recovery from the pandemic. "This presents a lot of downside risks for the labor market," said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies in Bloomfield, New Jersey.

☆ US expected to report strong consumer price increases in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.

CASE FOR A SWIFT RETREAT1/ ENERGY PRICESTumbling energy prices are pulling down headline inflation. U.S. inflation rose 6.4% in January, the smallest rise since October 2021, from a 9.1% high last June. Instead, corporate profits have accounted for the lion's share of domestic euro zone price pressures since 2021, ECB data shows. A recent IMF study going back to the 1960s found that only in a small minority of cases where wages and inflation rose together for several quarters did sustained inflation result. The chief executive of Gunvor, a top oil trader, sees oil prices rising in the second half of 2023 on renewed Chinese demand.

☆ Tech, housing, and manufacturing might already be in a recession. They could bring the US economy down with it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But the tech, housing, and manufacturing industries might be already. "We have a manufacturing recession, a housing recession, a tech recession," she said in a Bloomberg post last week. In this scenario, parts of the economy would "take turns suffering rather than simultaneously" — and the broader economy would never reach recession status. There were over 55,000 reported tech layoffs during the first 20 days of January, more than the entire first half of 2022. It's led some to declare that a "tech recession" is already upon us.

☆ Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That's two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be "sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation under control. At the same time, he said, "there's going to be some caution" about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent. Fed policymakers, as of December at least, all see no rate cuts until 2024. "The key question is how committed they are to further rate hikes."

☆ Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.

☆ Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

The tech industry accounts for about one-quarter of this year's job cuts, Challenger data show. The automotive industry has had 30,669 job cuts announced, compared with 10,277 through November 2021. And real estate has had 7,919 cuts announced this year, compared with 2,762 in 2021 year-to-date. "We've seen a lot of job cuts around mortgage origination and fintech firms in mortgages. U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November alone, more than double the 33,843 cuts announced in October and four-times the number of cuts announced last November, Challenger data show.

"Adding to the Fed's problems, monetary conditions have loosened in recent weeks as the dollar and longer-dated Treasury yields have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed. This is undoing the tightening effects of the Fed's recent rate rises." Investors now see an 87% chance that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points in December, down from 91% before the jobs data was published on Friday. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.09-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 15 new highs and 40 new lows.

☆ Inflation could fall back to the Fed's 2% target quicker than the market expects as housing prices are primed for a 20% decline, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices could crash 20% as housing supply begins to rise, according to ING Economics. But a silver lining of such a steep decline in home prices is that inflation would fall quicker than expected. A decline in home prices could already be seen in the S&P Case Shiller data, which saw a 1.3% month-over-month decline in home prices in August. The housing market hasn't experienced a back-to-back monthly decline in home prices since early 2012. Driving the housing price decline is a number of factors, according to Knightley, including higher mortgage rates, rising supply of homes for sale, and waning demand.

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But that is unlikely to push the Fed to switch its policy path anytime soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have remained blunt about the “pain” to come. The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. The real policy mistake is not bringing inflation back down to 2%,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at BofA Securities. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. “The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved.”(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

☆ Fed to take rates higher than previously expected; more pain ahead - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

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